Na`Vi vs. Virtus.pro preview

With Na`Vi's match versus Virtus.pro headlining group B at CEVO Professional Season 7 Finals, we have recycled the preview from last week with new analysis.

Basically all of the data for this preview comes from the one posted last week for day two of FACEIT Stage 2 Finals in Valencia, where Kinguin upset Virtus.pro and the match-up never took place.

As a result, and with their expected game likely being the highlight of the entire group stage and with that, first two days, we have put together a slightly updated version of the preview.

Zeus's calling is a big part of Na`Vi's success 

As pointed out previously, Virtus.pro actually have a very strong head-to-head track record versus Danylo "⁠Zeus⁠" Teslenko's team, but as with so many other things, it's not all as good it seems.

Despite having a 9-3 map record in the past three months, the two teams have only played against each other on three maps offline - with Virtus winning two in overtime, and Na`Vi claiming the most recent one.

Date	Team	Score	Team	Map	Event
July 16	Null element Na`Vi	16-12	Virtus.pro	de_overpass	FACEIT S2 Finals
June 24	Null element Na`Vi	10-16	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	CEVO
June 24	Null element Na`Vi	6-16	Virtus.pro	de_inferno	CEVO
June 17	Null element Na`Vi	8-16	Virtus.pro	de_cache	ESL ESEA
June 11	Null element Na`Vi	2-16	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	FACEIT
June 9	Null element Na`Vi	6-16	Virtus.pro	de_dust2	ESL ESEA
May 26	Null element Na`Vi	17-19	Virtus.pro	de_train	Counter Pit
May 26	Null element Na`Vi	16-8	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	Counter Pit
May 17	Null element Na`Vi	22-25	Virtus.pro	de_inferno	Gfinity Spring 2
May 17	Null element Na`Vi	17-19	Virtus.pro	de_train	Gfinity Spring 2
May 13	Null element Na`Vi	16-14	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	Champ. League
May 13	Null element Na`Vi	11-16	Virtus.pro	de_mirage	Champ. League
Average:	Null element Na`Vi	12.3-16.1	Virtus.pro

Barely outside of our scope of three months is also Na`Vi's best-of-three victory over the Poles at ESL Pro League Winter 2014/2015 Finals, which would make the series much more even.

In addition, Na`Vi, as a whole, have been trending upwards - by most accounts, they are now the third best team in the world, part of a very rare elite - while the Poles have struggled.

Virtus outplaced Na`Vi at FACEIT Stage 1 Finals, and Gfinity Spring Masters II, but have since only done well at ESL ESEA - where Na`Vi wasn't present - with two horrible showings.

Na`Vi on the other hand boast six straight top four finishes, including wins at ESWC and SLTV StarSeries XIII Finals, and a runners-up finish to fnatic at DreamHack Summer.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the player statistics in the twelve maps these two teams have played each other on. Worth noting is Na`Vi have lost nine, leading to worse stats overall.

Player statistics in the twelve qualifying Na`Vi vs. Virtus.pro maps

The biggest differences from the norm that you can easily spot are the poor performance of Ladislav "⁠GuardiaN⁠" Kovács, and the strong showings of Jarosław "⁠pashaBiceps⁠" Jarząbkowski.

Na`Vi's play style is built around the consistent AWPing of GuardiaN, so it's not surprising that when he struggles, so does the team. However, the reason why may be more interesting.

While there is no data currently to double check it, one reason may be that both of these teams love buying - a lot. As a result, it's likely that GuardiaN simply winds up playing less with his beloved AWP in this series.

Player statistics in Na`Vi's three qualifying map wins over Virtus.pro

In Na`Vi's three wins, which have come on de_cobblestone - twice - and on de_overpass, GuardiaN has still been a non-factor with a very similar rating as overall.

The best performer on the team coached by former player Sergey "⁠starix⁠" Ischuk has been, by far, the Russian youngster Denis "⁠seized⁠" Kostin.

However, Ioann "⁠Edward⁠" Sukhariev has also played at a near-superstar level in their wins, making up for the invisibility of his AWPing Slovak teammate's weak showings.

For Virtus.pro, everyone has struggled in their losses -- except Janusz "⁠Snax⁠" Pogorzelski, whose rating is actually higher, suggesting he hasn't been a big impact in their wins.

Player statistics in Virtus.pro's nine qualifying map wins over Na`Vi

In Virtus.pro's wins, on the other hand, it's been the duo of Filip "⁠NEO⁠" Kubski and pashaBiceps who have done the most work, with near 1.20 level ratings for each.

The newest members of the team, who near their two-year anniversaries, have not done so well versus Na`Vi -- recording the two poorest ratings for the Polish side in their wins.

For Na`Vi, as mentioned, GuardiaN's rating is actually better in losses than wins, showing how little impact he has had in this series -- so far. One can never count a player like him out.

On the other hand, the biggest drop-offs have been the duo of Edward and seized, while Zeus's fragging has been weak -- but he doesn't frag much in Na`Vi's wins in general, either.

Can pasha's Virtus.pro bounce back with a win over Na`Vi to top group B? 

Despite their one-sided head-to-head match records, one must favor Na`Vi slightly in the match-up that should, by all accounts, determine the winners of group B at CEVO Finals.

They are in stronger form - and have been for a while - and proven to be an elite team, while Virtus.pro have been taken down by weaker and weaker teams in recent times.

With the game's next major, ESL One Cologne, now just four weeks away, it's getting close enough that teams will want to gain confidence to feel better going into the more important event.

For now, these teams face different tasks, some outlined in our storylines article. On Saturday, starting at 16:00 , we should see which one is better right now.

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Time is adjusted to your selected timezone Ioann 'Edward' Sukhariev Age: 27 Team: Natus Vincere Rating 1.0: 1.08 Maps played: 554 KPR: 0.74 DPR: 0.66 Denis 'seized' Kostin Age: 20 Team: Natus Vincere Rating 1.0: 1.05 Maps played: 536 KPR: 0.72 DPR: 0.66 Danylo 'Zeus' Teslenko Age: 27 Team: Natus Vincere Rating 1.0: 0.97 Maps played: 558 KPR: 0.68 DPR: 0.69 Filip 'NEO' Kubski Age: 28 Team: Virtus.pro Rating 1.0: 1.04 Maps played: 760 KPR: 0.70 DPR: 0.65 Ladislav 'GuardiaN' Kovács Age: 24 Team: Natus Vincere Rating 1.0: 1.17 Maps played: 539 KPR: 0.79 DPR: 0.62 Janusz 'Snax' Pogorzelski Age: 22 Team: Virtus.pro Rating 1.0: 1.10 Maps played: 573 KPR: 0.73 DPR: 0.63 Jarosław 'pashaBiceps' Jarząbkowski Age: 27 Team: Virtus.pro Rating 1.0: 1.09 Maps played: 711 KPR: 0.76 DPR: 0.68 Sergey 'starix' Ischuk Age: 27 Team: Natus VincereC